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Specifically, the models are referenced as follows:ĪVNO: US Global Forecast System, or GFS. It compares several different classes of models, including global models that forecast conditions around the planet, nested models focused on hurricanes, and consensus forecasts. It shows the average position error (in kilometers) at forecast lead times of 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours (so, out to five days).
#Irma hurricane track noaa how to#
The chart below is extremely busy, but when you understand how to read it, the data is striking. Hurricane Irma has been a thing for about a week now, so we have started to get a decent sample size-at least 10 model runs-to assess performance. Then we checked out some of the preliminary data on model performance during this major hurricane, and it was truly eye-opening.īrian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, tabulates data on "mean absolute error" for the location of a storm's center at a given time and where it was forecast to be at that time. We have written a fair amount at Ars recently about the superiority of the European forecast model, suggesting to readers that they focus on the ensemble runs of this system to get a good handle on track forecasts for Hurricane Irma. “Potentially catastrophic” Hurricane Maria set to strike Puerto Rico.
![irma hurricane track noaa irma hurricane track noaa](http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/153/590x/hurricane-Irma-track-851137.jpg)
![irma hurricane track noaa irma hurricane track noaa](https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/153/590x/secondary/Hurricane-Irma-NOAA-storm-surge-map-1061311.jpg)
While Jose will pack powerful winds, the National Hurricane Center thinks the storm may begin to weaken just a couple days after becoming a major hurricane. The National Hurricane Center predicted Thursday morning that it would become a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, and on Friday it was declared a Category 4 storm.īut there’s one tiny bright spot to the Jose story, and it’s actually the result of the hurricane’s close proximity to Irma.
![irma hurricane track noaa irma hurricane track noaa](https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/153/590x/Hurricane-Irma-path-NOAA-update-852481.jpg)
Although here, too, the uncertainty about long-term predictions holds true: There’s still time for Jose to change course.Īnd Jose is still growing. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is predicting Jose will follow a slightly more northern path than Irma has, a relief for the heavily battered islands that have already been hit by a hurricane this week. In part, that’s because of its projected path. Jose’s path looks eerily similar to Irma’s, but it shouldn’t have nearly the same impact. Following close behind Irma is Jose, which reached hurricane status Wednesday evening along with Katia in the Gulf of Mexico.